Monday, January 14, 2008

Newt on Hillary

It has been widely reported on cable news that Newt Gingrich, on his podcast, recently praised Hillary Clinton. The question remains: why?

It is well known that Newt Gingrich is one of the most outspoken conservative republicans of the last 25 years. He championed the 1994 "republican revolution" and was one of the principle architects of the "Contract with America." The Contract was a 10 point list of policy goals that the 1995/1996 repulican led Congress promised to accomplish in their first term in office. Many of the goals were direct rebutals of policies promoted by the Clinton Administration.

Gingrich flirted with the possibility of running for President in 2008 on the Republican ticket. Last year Gingrich warned the country against another Clinton Administration. Why then would he praise Hillary on his pod-cast at a time when she is struggling to maintain her position as the democratic front runner?

Gingrich recently praised Hillary on her political acumen, and her "courage to learn" saying that learning during a campaign is a sign of a great candidate. Has he flip flopped? Has the great anti-Clinton republican swiched sides?

No. Gingrich was praising Hillary in order to help the republican nominee (whoever it turns out to be) to win the general election.

The fact is, if Hillary is the democratic nominee, the republicans have a pretty good shot at winning in the general. Her negative polling numbers (people who dislike her) have never really changed regardless of what her positive polling numbers have done. She stands a very poor chance of winning among male voters, particularly among white male voters. Moreover, she has a more difficult time hiding her leftist views than Obama, and therefore will have trouble winning independent, and alienated republican votes.

If Barack Obama is the nominee he will probably win, regardless of who the republican candidate turns out to be. He is very popular among young people and minorities - voting groups that traditionally do not turn out to vote as much as older, white voters. He comes off as somewhat of a moderate, avoiding policy and speaking in vague platitudes. His vague speaches have great effect because he is a fantastic orator. It has been decades since a great orator has run for president. His oratorical ability and stage presence will win him millions of votes from the undecided, from the unengaged, and from young voters who have never seen an inspiring leader at the national level, except of course in the movies.

Newt Gingrich wants Hillary to win the democratic nominee because she is clearly more beatable in the general election than Obama.

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